The 2025–26 NBA MVP award is one of the most fiercely contested in years. With the playoffs now underway, voters are locking in their ballots — and the race has been legitimately unpredictable from November through April.
Here's a full breakdown of every realistic MVP candidate, ranked by their season performance, advanced metrics, and current betting odds.
How NBA MVP Voting Works
The Maurice Podoloff Trophy is voted on by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters. Each voter submits a first-through-fifth place ballot; points are assigned (10/7/5/3/1), and the player with the most points wins.
No statistical threshold guarantees the award. Narrative matters — team record, peak performance, and the "eye test" all weigh on voters alongside the numbers.
MVP Candidates Ranked for 2026
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Oklahoma City Thunder
SGA enters MVP voting as the frontrunner for the second straight season. The Thunder guard has been the most consistent elite scorer in the league all year, averaging near 32 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game while leading Oklahoma City to one of the top records in the Western Conference.
What separates SGA: his efficiency. He's scoring 32+ points on elite true shooting percentage, doing it against elite defenses, and carrying a young roster deep into the standings without a traditional co-star.
MVP case: Best player on the best team in the West. Elite scorer + playmaker + defender. No real weakness in his game.
Counter-argument: Voters who prefer big men or players who do more in the box score may lean elsewhere.
2. Nikola Jokic — Denver Nuggets
Jokic is, statistically, the most complete player in basketball — again. His per-game line hovers around 27 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists, pushing him near triple-double averages without even trying to pad stats. His Player Efficiency Rating and Box Plus/Minus lead all players.
This would be his fourth MVP. History suggests voters are reluctant to award the same player repeatedly — but the numbers never lie for Jokic.
MVP case: No player in NBA history has ever posted these combined averages at his size and position. Statistically, the best argument is his.
Counter-argument: Voter fatigue is real. Denver's playoff seed and injury absences can hurt his case.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo — Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis is having a vintage season. After a quiet stretch post-2021, the Greek Freak is back to his dominant self — posting 29+ points and 11 rebounds while shooting above 60% from the field. Milwaukee's resurgence as a playoff contender runs entirely through him.
MVP case: Elite efficiency, elite production, and a Bucks team that exceeded expectations largely due to his play.
Counter-argument: Milwaukee's inconsistency in the regular season gives voters pause. When the Bucks lost, Giannis often still had monster games — which raises questions about team impact.
4. Jayson Tatum — Boston Celtics
Tatum is the perennial "next in line" who keeps delivering without winning the trophy. The Celtics are once again among the East's elite, and Tatum has matured into the full package: mid-20s scoring, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and a genuine two-way presence.
MVP case: Boston wins because of Tatum. He's the engine of the league's most complete team.
Counter-argument: Sharing credit with Jaylen Brown and an elite supporting cast dilutes the individual narrative. Voters historically prefer players who feel singular.
5. Luka Doncic — Los Angeles Lakers
Doncic's first full season in Los Angeles has been must-watch basketball. Posting near 29/8/8 with elite playmaking and shot creation, Luka has validated the blockbuster trade and pushed the Lakers back into legitimate contention.
MVP case: No player creates more offense from scratch. His gravity alone reshapes defenses.
Counter-argument: LA's regular season record has been streaky, and voters penalize candidates on inconsistent teams.
- Best case of any candidate (top seed + individual excellence)
- No voter fatigue — only one prior MVP finish
- Defined the season's offensive excellence
- Some voters prefer frontcourt players historically
- Jokic's raw numbers are statistically superior
The Advanced Metrics Picture
If you go purely by numbers:
Box Plus/Minus (BPM) estimates each player's contribution per 100 possessions relative to average. Jokic leads this metric — as he has for most of the past four seasons.
But MVP voters weight the eye test and team success heavily. That's why SGA remains the favorite despite Jokic's statistical edge.
Current Betting Odds
As of early April 2026, sportsbooks list the race as:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -180 favorite
- Nikola Jokic: +220
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: +600
- Jayson Tatum: +900
- Luka Doncic: +1200
SGA's odds reflect the consensus view: he's done everything needed to win. Jokic remains the statistical wildcard who could pull another upset.
Historical MVP Trends Worth Knowing
- The MVP's team has won 50+ games in 19 of the last 20 seasons
- Guards and wings have won 7 of the last 10 MVPs
- No player has won 4+ MVPs since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6 total)
- First-time winners have claimed the award in 4 of the last 6 seasons
- The player with the highest BPM wins MVP roughly 60% of the time
Who Wins NBA MVP 2026?
The smart money is on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
He has checked every box voters care about: elite scoring on elite efficiency, top-seed team performance, and a compelling narrative as the face of a franchise rebuild that overdelivered. Two straight years of MVP-level play have built voter momentum.
Jokic could steal it — he's done it before when voters surprised everyone — but the narrative currently runs through SGA.
Expect the announcement in late April or early May. If the Thunder cruise through the first round while SGA posts 35-point performances, this race is over.
