Tesla Stock and EV Sales 2026: Robotaxi Hopes vs Declining Deliveries

Tesla's electric-vehicle sales are expected to return to growth in 2026 after declining roughly 8.5% in 2025. The Model Y refresh, including the new "Juniper" variant, disrupted sales in the first half of 2025, but a second-half recovery has set the stage for improvement. At the same time, Tesla's stock trades near $400 with a market cap around $1 trillion, driven more by robotaxi and autonomy optimism than by current vehicle volumes.

Analysts are split. Morningstar rates the stock overvalued with a fair-value estimate of about $300 and "Very High" uncertainty. Nasdaq and other outlets note that the investment thesis has shifted from EV volume to the potential commercialization of autonomous mobility and humanoid robotics, including the planned "Cybercab" robotaxi.

EV Sales and Model Y

Tesla's 2025 decline was partly self-inflicted. The Model Y refresh and Juniper rollout caused buyers to delay purchases until the new model was widely available. As that transition completed, second-half 2025 delivery trends improved. Forecasts assume 2026 will show year-over-year growth again, though competition from Chinese EV makers and other brands remains fierce.

Stock Valuation and Robotaxi Bet

Tesla's share price has held near $400–417 in early 2026 despite weaker vehicle sales. Investors are pricing in success for robotaxis and full self-driving (FSD) adoption. The company is framing itself as a "Physical AI" and robotics company, not just an automaker. Humanoid robots and the Cybercab are central to that story.

Critics say the stock implies a level of robotaxi and FSD success that is far from certain. Regulation, safety, and execution risk are high. Chinese competitors and tech firms like Nvidia are also investing heavily in autonomous driving.

Challenges

Tesla faces a third consecutive year of possible vehicle sales declines in some forecasts, depending on how 2026 plays out. The company must execute on the Model Y refresh and new products while convincing regulators and the public on robotaxi deployment. Execution risk is high, and the stock already reflects a lot of good news.

What's Next

Earnings and delivery reports will show whether 2026 EV volume is indeed recovering. Any concrete robotaxi or FSD milestones could move the stock sharply in either direction. For now, Tesla remains a bet on autonomy as much as on electric cars.